---
name: hive-prediction-markets
description: "Use this skill when the user asks about prediction markets, meaning Polymarket events, markets, outcomes, odds, prices, order books, liquidity, odds history, or a wallet's positions and trades, including \"what are the odds of X\", \"find markets about Y\", or Kalshi questions (answer from Polymarket and say Kalshi is not covered). Use it whenever live prediction-market evidence is needed. Never present market probability as ground truth."
license: MIT
metadata:
  package: "@hiveintelligence/agent-skills"
  category: "prediction-markets"
  requires_network: "true"
version: 1.0.0
---

# Prediction Markets

Research Polymarket prediction markets: events, market-implied odds, order books, odds history, and wallet positions.

## Trigger

Use this skill when the user asks about prediction markets, meaning Polymarket events, markets, outcomes, odds, prices, order books, liquidity, odds history, or a wallet's positions and trades, including "what are the odds of X", "find markets about Y", or Kalshi questions (answer from Polymarket and say Kalshi is not covered). Use it whenever live prediction-market evidence is needed. Never present market probability as ground truth.

## Use when

- prediction market
- polymarket
- odds
- implied probability
- event market

## Source

Canonical source path: `agent-skills/packs/hive-prediction-markets/SKILL.md`

## Task toolsets

- `prediction_markets`: Answer prediction-market questions with market-implied odds from Polymarket: find markets and events, read order books and odds history, and inspect a trader's positions and flow. Required identifiers: market topic, slug, or condition id.

## Procedure

1. Read `hive://toolsets` or call `search_tools` to confirm the task.
2. Ask for any missing required identifier before execution.
3. Call `get_api_endpoint_schema` before invoking an exact endpoint.
4. Use `invoke_api_endpoint` for read-only endpoints. Use `invoke_stateful_endpoint` only for a Hive state change the user explicitly approved.
5. Report provider-native evidence timing, source, warnings, runtime status, and the Hive receipt.

## Runtime status handling

Hive uses `ok`, `invalid_input`, `missing_key`, `plan_required`, `rate_limited`, `degraded`, `failing`.
A non-`ok` state means the tool exists but the runtime cannot complete that call
right now. Do not hide or remove the tool.

## Source of truth

The executable MCP skill pack ships with the Hive MCP package. This public file
is a website mirror for agent discovery. Runtime metadata is available at
`https://mcp.hiveintelligence.xyz/mcp` via `hive://skills`. Installable skills are mirrored at
https://github.com/hive-intel/hive-skills; install the full pack with
`npx skills add hive-intel/hive-skills`.