---
name: hive-prediction-markets
description: "Use this skill when the user asks about Polymarket or Kalshi prediction markets — events, markets, outcomes, odds, prices, liquidity, stats, traders, holders, or trades. Never present market probability as ground truth."
license: MIT
metadata:
  package: "@hiveintelligence/agent-skills"
  category: "prediction-markets"
  requires_network: "true"
version: 1.0.0
---

# Prediction Markets

Research prediction markets, events, outcomes, market stats, traders, holders, and trades.

## Trigger

Use this skill when the user asks about Polymarket or Kalshi prediction markets — events, markets, outcomes, odds, prices, liquidity, stats, traders, holders, or trades. Never present market probability as ground truth.

## Use when

- prediction market
- polymarket
- kalshi
- odds
- election odds
- sports odds
- event
- outcome
- prediction traders

## Source

Canonical source path: `agent-skills/packs/hive-prediction-markets/SKILL.md`

## Task toolsets

- `prediction_markets` — Research prediction markets, events, market stats, prices, outcomes, traders, holders, and trades. Required identifiers: market id, event id, or search query.

## Procedure

1. Read `hive://toolsets` or call `search_tools` to confirm the task.
2. Ask for any missing required identifier before execution.
3. Call `get_api_endpoint_schema` before invoking an exact endpoint.
4. Call `invoke_api_endpoint` with schema-valid arguments.
5. Report freshness, source, warnings, and runtime status.

## Runtime status handling

Hive uses `ok`, `missing_key`, `plan_required`, `rate_limited`, `degraded`, `failing`.
A non-`ok` state means the tool exists but the runtime cannot complete that call
right now. Do not hide or remove the tool.

## Source of truth

The executable MCP skill pack ships with the Hive MCP package. This public file
is a website mirror for agent discovery. Runtime metadata is available at
`https://mcp.hiveintelligence.xyz/mcp` via `hive://skills`. Installable skills are mirrored at
https://github.com/hive-intel/hive-skills; install the full pack with
`npx skills add hive-intel/hive-skills`.